The Geopolitics of Water Scarcity and Its Impact on Regional Stability: A Case Study of the Tigris and Euphrates Basin and the Repercussions of Turkish and Iranian Dams

Abstract

Shared water resources are among the most prominent geopolitical issues affecting relations between states, particularly in regions experiencing increasing water scarcity due to natural factors and unilateral water policies. The Tigris–Euphrates basin represents a striking example of this dilemma, as its waters are shared by four main countries (Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria), making it a hotspot for geopolitical conflicts linked to water security and regional stability. This study focuses on analyzing the geopolitics of water scarcity in this basin and examines the impact of Turkish and Iranian dams on water flows toward downstream countries, as well as the resulting water crises that threaten food and economic security and could potentially escalate regional tensions and conflicts.

The study adopts a descriptive-analytical methodology, employing geopolitical research tools to understand the dimensions of the water conflict, and relies on official data sources. The findings suggest that the persistence of water scarcity, combined with unilateral control policies over water sources in the absence of a binding legal framework, will deepen water crises and increase the likelihood of water-related violence in the region, thereby threatening its political and security stability in the medium and long term. The study recommends establishing mechanisms for regional cooperation and enforcing international laws governing transboundary waters to ensure fair water distribution and sustainable management, reducing the risk of potential conflicts.